Leadership in the Cone of Uncertainty
Today’s Reality: The Cone of
Uncertainty
Hurricane preparedness has introduced a new
phrase, “the cone of uncertainty”. Weather experts realize that
tropical weather systems are dynamic; they seem to have a mind of
their own. These powerful systems are made up of multiple
interdependent factors that change continuously over time.
Forecasters who try to predict a storm track are wise enough to
realize that change happens quickly, and account for those shifting,
unpredictable storm forces by placing the storm’s eye within a cone of
possible futures, rather than just a single projected path.
The Corporate Challenge: Complexity
Leaders in business, government, and community
service realize that their organizations move forward within a cone of
uncertainty. Operational and strategic decisions are made within a
web of interdependent, interactive variables which change constantly—a
competitive marketplace, regulatory compliance demands, stockholder
expectations, sophisticated technology applications and complex social
systems. Leaders are challenged to establish a clear path forward,
even though the landmarks are continually shifting.
The Solution: Systems Thinking
Leaders are learning to think systemically, to
take the long view, to see the big picture, to be aware of their own
blind spots. Making and implementing decisions within the cone of
corporate uncertainty requires a willingness to challenge assumptions
and beliefs, to question the tyranny of the status quo, and to explore
alternative ways in which the future could unfold. Sustainability
requires the linkage of rigorous analysis, creative imagination and
disciplined action.
Performance Consulting, Inc.
With more than 25 years of experience,
Performance Consulting focuses on strategic alignment and resource
allocation using the tools and methods of system dynamics and
organizational learning. Real time, computer-based data gathering,
analysis, and modeling approaches support the work of corporate teams
as they dig into tough problems and explore options for the future.
Specific applications in our “tool chest” are:
Unity 2000 Key Pad Response System
i think modeling/simulation software
World Café style Guided Conversations
Models such as The Growth Curve, The Inverted Triangle, The
Beer Game, Friday Night at the ER, etc.
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